Every idea is time-stamped before its outcome is known. Below is exactly what has finished so far, grouped by how long each idea was meant to run. Where the sample is still small we say so — we don't dress up a handful of results as proof.
⚡ About 2 weeks
ideas finished141
made money (ended in profit)54 / 141 (38%)
95% confidence range31–47%
average per idea+0.02%
if you'd followed every idea+0.5%
vs the market, same datesmarket +0.59% · we beat it 37%
best / worst+15.70% / -10.24%
how they closed83 hit the exit, 58 time ran out
What we expected: Validation (17 unseen years): about 58 of every 100 ideas profitable, +0.69% average — but overall this strategy matched the S&P 500 rather than beating it.
🌙 1 month
ideas finished127
made money (ended in profit)63 / 127 (50%)
95% confidence range41–58%
average per idea+1.88%
if you'd followed every idea+4.8%
vs the market, same datesmarket +1.72% · we beat it 43%
best / worst+33.32% / -12.74%
how they closed65 hit the exit, 62 time ran out
What we expected: Validation (17 unseen years): higher total return than the S&P 500, but deeper worst-case falls (-42% vs -32%) — risk for risk, it did not beat the market.
📈 3 months
⏳ Too few to judge yet — a fair read needs about 20 finished ideas.
ideas finished6
made money (ended in profit)1 / 6 (17%)
95% confidence range3–56%
average per idea-4.44%
if you'd followed every idea-4.3%
vs the market, same datesmarket +2.75% · we beat it 0%
best / worst+0.43% / -8.74%
how they closed5 hit the exit, 1 time ran out
What we expected: Validation (17 unseen years): more than double the S&P 500's total result at a similar worst-case dip — our strongest strategy.
This is what a single pot of money would have done, split evenly across whichever ideas were open on each calendar day. It is NOT the result of taking ideas one after another — ideas overlap, so stacking them end to end would assume far more time than has actually passed. It mixes all idea-lengths into one line, so the per-length cards above are the honest read.
Average paper gain or loss of every currently-open idea versus the price we suggested buying at — capped at each idea's own goal and exit levels. Refreshed about once an hour. This is an estimate of work in progress, not a final result.
Why so little here? Arroven launched recently, so only the shortest (~2-week) ideas have had time to finish. The flagship 3-month strategy needs three months before its first idea can even close — its long validated history (17 years of data the model never saw) is summarised on the home page. This page only ever shows what has truly completed and been measured — nothing modelled, nothing cherry-picked.