Results — the full breakdown
Every idea is time-stamped before its outcome is known. Below is exactly what has finished so far, grouped by how long each idea was meant to run. Where the sample is still small we say so — we don't dress up a handful of results as proof.
Results by idea length
⚡ About 2 weeks
ideas finished72
made money (ended in profit)24 / 72 (33%)
95% confidence range24–45%
average per idea-0.25%
combined (compounded)-22.4%
vs the market, same datesmarket +0.10% · we beat it 35%
best / worst+15.70% / -10.24%
how they closed41 hit the exit, 31 time ran out
What we expected: Validation (17 unseen years): about 58 of every 100 ideas profitable, +0.69% average.
🌙 1 month
ideas finished38
made money (ended in profit)11 / 38 (29%)
95% confidence range17–45%
average per idea-0.96%
combined (compounded)-38.5%
vs the market, same datesmarket +0.62% · we beat it 26%
best / worst+16.79% / -12.74%
how they closed27 hit the exit, 11 time ran out
Every finished idea, compounded in order
This is the result of taking every finished idea, one after another. It mixes all idea-lengths into one line, so the per-length cards above are the honest read.
Open ideas right now (live estimate)
Average paper gain or loss of every currently-open idea versus the price we suggested buying at — capped at each idea's own goal and exit levels. Refreshed about once an hour. This is an estimate of work in progress, not a final result.
An honest note
Why so little here? Arroven launched recently, so only the shortest (~2-week) ideas have had time to finish. The flagship 3-month strategy needs three months before its first idea can even close — its long validated history (17 years of data the model never saw) is summarised on the home page. This page only ever shows what has truly completed and been measured — nothing modelled, nothing cherry-picked.